Yojimbob wrote:Panzer wrote:Pottsey wrote:The way I see it is a small chance to kill a target in 1 turn with a Gunrig is better than a 0% chance with Longstrike. With 2 shots you can expect at least 1 shot to hit per turn so you should manage to match Longstrikes damage on most turns with the odd turn of doing double Longstrikes damage. Getting 5 turns matching Longstrike with 1 turn double Longstrike is well worth it to me.
I think you are really overestimating them.
Gunrig vs Longstrike
Gunrig with 5 ML on target, Longstrike with 1 ML on target
hits: 1.167 vs 0.912
wounds vs T6-9: 0.78 vs 0.76
So the raw expected number of wounds is pretty much the same. The differences are that Longstrike needs only 1 Markerlight hit to achieve that while the Gunrigs need 5. Longstrike is also FAR more reliable to make that one hit with his BS2+ compared to the BS4+ of the Gunrigs + Markerlights. Plus Longstrikes chance to deal Mortal wounds is in fact almost twice as high as the Gunrigs chance.
The odd chance to hit both Gunrig shots doesn't really match the reliability of Longstrike and being able to deal Mortal wounds on 5+ instead of 6+.
Oh and not to forget that he has 8 S5 shots as well (which basically turn into S9 shots vs T8 Monsters/Vehicles).
On top of that he also lets nearby Hammerheads hit on 2+ as well increasing his utility even further so even if you wanted more Railguns after including Longstrike I'd say getting more Hammerheads is the better choice.
Also not to forget that Longstrike basically has BS1+ so he ignores the first -1 to-hit modifier. So he can shoot at flyer with BS2+ still while Gunrigs would hit flyer at BS5+ (if you actually managed to get 5 ML on it which would hit on 5+ as well). And not just flyer, Raven Guard and Alpha Legion have a Ghostkeel modifier practically their whole army and there are other units who have similar effects.
Clearly he doesn't like math or odds because he's clearly not playing with them in mind. I think this is all for nothing. Hopefully others will see that the gunrig is a chancy thing to play in it's current form and needs far more support than other of the same choices. Use at your own peril.
That’s wrong I am taking into account the maths and odds. On an average turn my Gunrig is doing the same damage as Longstrike then once every so often the Gunrig does twice the damage of Longstrike. I tend to have 2 gunrigs in my list so I get better damage over an average game out of them then longstrike.
For 77pts more than longstike I am getting 4 heavy railgun shots which have better average and better spike damage then Longstike when factoring in targets with marker tokens on. On top of that I have open topped protection for my other units. Its how I keep my Rail Rifles alive longer. With 2 Gunrigs I expect to see 1 shot kills a lot more then Longstrike would. Anyway I agree there are situations where Longstrike is better I am just trying to point out how effective Gunrigs can be and they should be in the list of units to consider using.