What are the statistics of melta guns?

Use this area for all discussions of the "gaming" aspect of 40K/Tau.
User avatar
Temennigru
Shas'Saal
Posts: 144

What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#1 » Dec 18 2017 11:34

How do you calculate the average damage for the 2d6k1 damage meltas do?

Wedrujacy
Shas'Saal
Posts: 69

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#2 » Dec 18 2017 11:58

You mean 2k6 drop lowest average value or statistical values?

User avatar
Gragagrogog
Shas'La
Shas'La
Posts: 406

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#3 » Dec 18 2017 12:33

Methodically. Create a 2D table, showing the results of each dice going from 1 to 6:
Image

Then, you sum all results (161), divide by number of results (36), you'll get 161/36 = 4.472 ... which is the average.

If you want statistical distribution, you count how many times a number is represented and divide by the number of all results(36)

1 ... 1/36 = 2.77%
2 ... 3/36 = 8.33%
3 ... 5/36 = 13.88%
4 ... 7/36 = 19.44%
5 ... 9/36 = 25.00%
6 ...11/36 = 30.55%

User avatar
Temennigru
Shas'Saal
Posts: 144

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#4 » Dec 18 2017 12:39

Gragagrogog wrote:Methodically. Create a 2D table, showing the results of each dice going from 1 to 6:
Image

Then, you sum all results (161), divide by number of results (36), you'll get 161/36 = 4.472 ... which is the average.

If you want statistical distribution, you count how many times a number is represented and divide by the number of all results(36)

1 ... 1/36 = 2.77%
2 ... 3/36 = 8.33%
3 ... 5/36 = 13.88%
4 ... 7/36 = 19.44%
5 ... 9/36 = 25.00%
6 ...11/36 = 30.55%

I did exactly that, but I'd like to know how that would work in a statistical formula.

User avatar
Gragagrogog
Shas'La
Shas'La
Posts: 406

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#5 » Dec 18 2017 12:54

You mean how to put it into the classical greek sigma summation?

User avatar
Temennigru
Shas'Saal
Posts: 144

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#6 » Dec 18 2017 01:20

Gragagrogog wrote:You mean how to put it into the classical greek sigma summation?

Yes

User avatar
Gragagrogog
Shas'La
Shas'La
Posts: 406

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#7 » Dec 18 2017 01:37

Temennigru wrote:
Gragagrogog wrote:You mean how to put it into the classical greek sigma summation?

Yes


Then you'll have to somehow put the 2 dimensions into 1.

(calculating average..)
One way would be:

Sum n=1,6 [((n-1)*2+1)*n]

...then divided by the 36

^ you could simplify the formula, or generalize it for different dices, different number of dice, though I don't see the point of doing so here...

User avatar
Bloodknife92
Shas'La
Shas'La
Posts: 617

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#8 » Dec 19 2017 05:06

Wow :P I can't believe poeple would go to lengths this great just to try and increase their chances to win in a game largely governed by strategy and RNG :D

PeeJ
Shas'La
Shas'La
Posts: 124

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#9 » Dec 19 2017 07:30

Honestly, I've always thought the 'roll 2, pick 1' mechanic was a bit naff. But this is a fantastic way to visualise and wrap your head around how it adjusts the odds for each value roll. It's pretty good.

User avatar
CmdrCASh
Shas'Ui
Shas'Ui
Posts: 154

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#10 » Dec 19 2017 08:21

Bloodknife92 wrote:Wow :P I can't believe poeple would go to lengths this great just to try and increase their chances to win in a game largely governed by strategy and RNG :D


Ha ha, I would think that understanding the odds was always a part of good strategy! :smile:
Besides, odds in 40k are relatively easy to calculate. Games like (now defunct) Dystopian Wars with the exploding die mechanic and varying weapon strengths at different distances take a little bit more effort :D
Ka'ash Sept

User avatar
Arka0415
Shas'Ui
Shas'Ui
Posts: 2693

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#11 » Dec 19 2017 08:50

CmdrCASh wrote:
Bloodknife92 wrote:Wow :P I can't believe poeple would go to lengths this great just to try and increase their chances to win in a game largely governed by strategy and RNG :D


Ha ha, I would think that understanding the odds was always a part of good strategy!

Hey, this is what we're all here for, right? This isn't Basic Tau Tactica! :D

User avatar
CDR_Farsight
Shas'Saal
Posts: 211

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#12 » Dec 19 2017 11:25

Gragagrogog wrote:Methodically. Create a 2D table, showing the results of each dice going from 1 to 6:
Image

Then, you sum all results (161), divide by number of results (36), you'll get 161/36 = 4.472 ... which is the average.

If you want statistical distribution, you count how many times a number is represented and divide by the number of all results(36)

1 ... 1/36 = 2.77%
2 ... 3/36 = 8.33%
3 ... 5/36 = 13.88%
4 ... 7/36 = 19.44%
5 ... 9/36 = 25.00%
6 ...11/36 = 30.55%


...and they said you'll never use anything more than addition and subtraction in your real life after college
To secure victory, the wise must adapt ~ Puretide

User avatar
K'Pokk
Shas'Saal
Posts: 76

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#13 » Dec 19 2017 12:58

understanding odds is all fine and dandy until people start to complain how the dice "ought to" have behaved

User avatar
Arka0415
Shas'Ui
Shas'Ui
Posts: 2693

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#14 » Dec 19 2017 07:32

K'Pokk wrote:understanding odds is all fine and dandy until people start to complain how the dice "ought to" have behaved

If your opponent things their dice "ought" to roll more 6s, maybe you should check your opponent's dice! :D

Nymphomanius
Shas'Saal
Posts: 424
Contact:

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#15 » Dec 22 2017 01:09

Arka0415 wrote:
K'Pokk wrote:understanding odds is all fine and dandy until people start to complain how the dice "ought to" have behaved

If your opponent things their dice "ought" to roll more 6s, maybe you should check your opponent's dice! :D


But that's my favourite thing about warhammer, never knowing how fickle nuffle will choose to be, my T'au Commander has killed off both an entire squad of harlequins (5th ed with retinue but still) and killed an ork warboss on a bike in a challenge :D and next turn could fire both his plasma guns at a squad close range and miss all 4 shots :D

User avatar
Temennigru
Shas'Saal
Posts: 144

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#16 » Dec 22 2017 01:14

Bloodknife92 wrote:Wow :P I can't believe poeple would go to lengths this great just to try and increase their chances to win in a game largely governed by strategy and RNG :D

I'm not trying to win. I was explaining to a friend of mine why plasma guns are awful, and when he said they were decent at taking out tanks and characters, I wanted to show him that fusion blasters are way more points efficient.

User avatar
Arka0415
Shas'Ui
Shas'Ui
Posts: 2693

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#17 » Dec 22 2017 01:23

Temennigru wrote:
Bloodknife92 wrote:Wow :P I can't believe poeple would go to lengths this great just to try and increase their chances to win in a game largely governed by strategy and RNG :D

I'm not trying to win. I was explaining to a friend of mine why plasma guns are awful, and when he said they were decent at taking out tanks and characters, I wanted to show him that fusion blasters are way more points efficient.

Plasma Guns can do quite well against tanks, especially using the S8 D2 overcharged profile. They hit harder than Cyclic Ion Blasters. Melta is of course better up close, but I still wouldn't underestimate the power of a Devastator or Hellblaster squad.

User avatar
Temennigru
Shas'Saal
Posts: 144

Re: What are the statistics of melta guns?

Post#18 » Dec 22 2017 01:32

Arka0415 wrote:
Temennigru wrote:
Bloodknife92 wrote:Wow :P I can't believe poeple would go to lengths this great just to try and increase their chances to win in a game largely governed by strategy and RNG :D

I'm not trying to win. I was explaining to a friend of mine why plasma guns are awful, and when he said they were decent at taking out tanks and characters, I wanted to show him that fusion blasters are way more points efficient.

Plasma Guns can do quite well against tanks, especially using the S8 D2 overcharged profile. They hit harder than Cyclic Ion Blasters. Melta is of course better up close, but I still wouldn't underestimate the power of a Devastator or Hellblaster squad.

I meant tau plasma rifles.

Return to “General Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Nowonmai, Nymphomanius and 10 guests