Tau Win Percentage Log

Battle Reports and debriefing thoughts about your Tau in action
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Yojimbob
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Posts: 557

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#73 » Feb 05 2018 03:29

The majority of the index is most assuredly in a bad place but we know this and have created a fairly optimal set of lists for people to be the most successful they can be despite this problem. Plus I've found Tau players to be the most cunning and intelligent which goes a long way in this game. :D

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Zadocfish
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Posts: 64

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#74 » Feb 05 2018 04:30

"The majority" kinda seems like an overstatement. Like, a MASSIVE overstatement. The ones that are legitimately bad are pretty much limited to the Riptide, Broadsides, SOME of the Kroot (others are legitimately useful for chaff and bubble-wrapping), Etherials, the Tidewall series, two of the flyers (kinda, I don't see much discussion of them either way) and Sniper Drones, with Vespids being a variable case.

Meanwhile, here's a list of units that are totally viable:

Commanders (both variants)
All named Characters
Strikers
Breachers (edge case)
Kroot (edge case)
All tanks (edge cases)
Stealth Suits
Crisis Suits
Bodyguard Suits (edge case)
ALL drones
Stormsurge
Sunshark Bomber
Pathfinders
Piranhas
Ghostkeel
Firesight Marksmen

And I'm pretty sure I'm missing a few. The players I've talked to that don't play T'au have said very specifically, "Tau players are the only ones that think their Index sucks." And yeah... we're in a better place than quite a few other Index armies.

Probably the wrong thread for this, but I think it kinda explains our high victory percentage.
I am a Christian.

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akaron79
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Posts: 14

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#75 » Feb 05 2018 05:47

Zadocfish wrote:For being in a "bad place" right now, we certainly seem to win a lot...

I think it is really difficult to get non biased numbers with such direct way of measuring W/L rate.

First, we would need a very much greater "population" or number of occurrences. Second, even having thousands of occurrences, numbers would not bee bias free and there should be some kind of checks to ensure the quality avoiding unintended "outliers" and so on. Furthermore, the way of identifying outliers is not trivial at all, but probably a more accurate ratio could be obtained as a mean applied to W/L ratios for some random sub-sets of samples, etc.

Apart from the statistical questions, as suggested in the original post, there is a psychological issue that introduces an intrinsecal bias: people are not usually so encouraged to report loses. That is a fact. It could be used some kind of correction factor (i.e. number of loses to get de ratio = number of reported loses * 1.2, or so) to model this fact, but it is not easy to get an accurate factor either.

All in all, although W/L ratio could be a rough estimation of reality, I would take such number with a grain of salt...

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Arka0415
Shas'Vre
Shas'Vre
Posts: 3123

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#76 » Feb 05 2018 07:22

akaron79 wrote:
Zadocfish wrote:For being in a "bad place" right now, we certainly seem to win a lot...

I think it is really difficult to get non biased numbers with such direct way of measuring W/L rate.

First, we would need a very much greater "population" or number of occurrences. Second, even having thousands of occurrences, numbers would not bee bias free and there should be some kind of checks to ensure the quality avoiding unintended "outliers" and so on. Furthermore, the way of identifying outliers is not trivial at all, but probably a more accurate ratio could be obtained as a mean applied to W/L ratios for some random sub-sets of samples, etc.

Apart from the statistical questions, as suggested in the original post, there is a psychological issue that introduces an intrinsecal bias: people are not usually so encouraged to report loses. That is a fact. It could be used some kind of correction factor (i.e. number of loses to get de ratio = number of reported loses * 1.2, or so) to model this fact, but it is not easy to get an accurate factor either.

All in all, although W/L ratio could be a rough estimation of reality, I would take such number with a grain of salt...

A few important factors are at play here. First, most of these battle reports don't come from tournaments or competitive play. You can check out the competitive Tau winrate here: http://bloodofkittens.com/8th-edition-t ... ompendium/ Second, most of us tend to use good units and good lists (as good as our Index allows) and we're all somewhat tactically-minded people, seeing as we're all ATT users. Finally, this is ultimately a very small sample set.

The takeaway from these numbers is:

"ATT users using some of the better units and lists have a strong winrate in non-tournament games" rather than "Tau win a lot".

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MNGamer
Shas'Saal
Posts: 136

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#77 » Feb 05 2018 09:08

“ATT users using some of the better units and and lists that choose which of their battles they report have a strong winrate in non-tournament games”. Remember that people are less likely to report losses than wins, even though no one is judging them. It’s just how people instinctively represent themselves in a social setting, I’d wager there are more losses than there are posted.
Even when broken, a sword may still cut~Aun'ko'vash

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Arka0415
Shas'Vre
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Posts: 3123

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#78 » Feb 05 2018 10:24

MNGamer wrote:“ATT users using some of the better units and and lists that choose which of their battles they report have a strong winrate in non-tournament games”. Remember that people are less likely to report losses than wins, even though no one is judging them. It’s just how people instinctively represent themselves in a social setting, I’d wager there are more losses than there are posted.

You might be right, but I really hope that isn't the cse. No one should feel judged on this forum, and frankly, reports of losses are much more valuable when it comes to discussing how we can all improve our gameplay. You make a good point though, and you're probably right.

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MNGamer
Shas'Saal
Posts: 136

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#79 » Feb 05 2018 11:05

Outcome: W
Points/PL: 2000
Opponent: Dark Eldar
Competitive/Casual: Casual
Tournament: N/A
Format: Open War Deck
List Theme: Lots of fire warriors supported by deepstriking crisis, fusion commander, and coldstar.
Experience: Two Years
Additional Info: Opponent was basically tabled by turn 4, Dark Eldar vehicles are very squishy.

Outcome: L
Points/PL: 2000
Opponent: Custodes
Competitive/Casual: Grudge Match
Tournament: N/A
Format: Open War
List Theme: Lots of fire warriors supported by deepstriking crisis, fusion commander, and coldstar.
Experience: Two Years
Additional Info: The 1cp stratagem that lets a Custodes unit shoot concussive grenades that prevent overwatch is brutal. Custodes are extremely hard to put down, i only killed 8 out of 25-ish. I believe that Custodes will be major players in the future.

Outcome: L
Points/PL: 50pl
Opponent: Necrons
Competitive/Casual: Casual
Tournament: N/A
Format: Open War
List Theme: Suit Heavy.
Additional Info: I lost by points, i had killed about 75% of his units vs 25% of mine.

Arka0415 wrote:
MNGamer wrote:“ATT users using some of the better units and and lists that choose which of their battles they report have a strong winrate in non-tournament games”. Remember that people are less likely to report losses than wins, even though no one is judging them. It’s just how people instinctively represent themselves in a social setting, I’d wager there are more losses than there are posted.

You might be right, but I really hope that isn't the cse. No one should feel judged on this forum, and frankly, reports of losses are much more valuable when it comes to discussing how we can all improve our gameplay. You make a good point though, and you're probably right.

Thats the main issue with self reporting for anything. I would also like to add that if anyone feels self conscience about posting a game for any reason , just PM the details to me and ill post it myself.
Even when broken, a sword may still cut~Aun'ko'vash

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Yojimbob
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Posts: 557

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#80 » Feb 06 2018 08:56

Zadocfish wrote:"The majority" kinda seems like an overstatement. Like, a MASSIVE overstatement. The ones that are legitimately bad are pretty much limited to the Riptide, Broadsides, SOME of the Kroot (others are legitimately useful for chaff and bubble-wrapping), Etherials, the Tidewall series, two of the flyers (kinda, I don't see much discussion of them either way) and Sniper Drones, with Vespids being a variable case.

Meanwhile, here's a list of units that are totally viable:

Commanders (both variants)
All named Characters
Strikers
Breachers (edge case)
Kroot (edge case)
All tanks (edge cases)
Stealth Suits
Crisis Suits
Bodyguard Suits (edge case)
ALL drones
Stormsurge
Sunshark Bomber
Pathfinders
Piranhas
Ghostkeel
Firesight Marksmen

And I'm pretty sure I'm missing a few. The players I've talked to that don't play T'au have said very specifically, "Tau players are the only ones that think their Index sucks." And yeah... we're in a better place than quite a few other Index armies.

Probably the wrong thread for this, but I think it kinda explains our high victory percentage.


In a competitive sense most of our index is in a bad place. Due to a lack of rules, most of our BS4+ stuff is basically unplayable in a competitive setting. I will be doing a Brigade test against two other VERY good competitive players who will be running Orks and Dark Eldar to see which of the three of us has the worst index. Should yield some interesting results nonetheless.

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Atlas_MH
Shas
Posts: 10

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#81 » Feb 06 2018 10:28

Outcome: W
Points/PL: 1250
Opponent: Alpha Legion
Competitive/Casual: Casual
Tournament: N/A
Format: Dominate and Destroy
List Theme: FW Castle with Fireblade and Ethereal and Missile pod commander. Stealth suits, missile crisis, and QFC
Experience: almost 5 years with very little play, seriously into 8th Ed though
Additional Info: Tougher game than it should have been, I felt a little cheesy for all of the missile pods keeping his army out of range, and a good screen on deep striking terminators. Went to turn 6 where I won on pts 21-16. Not an honorable win on my part. He forgot his tanks, codex, and most of his elite and heavy support choices. He could only footslog across the board while I peppered his army with markerlights and missiles.

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Draaen
Shas'La
Shas'La
Posts: 151

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#82 » Feb 06 2018 11:09

Arka0415 wrote: No one should feel judged on this forum, and frankly, reports of losses are much more valuable when it comes to discussing how we can all improve our gameplay. You make a good point though, and you're probably right.


Exactly my favorite games are the ones where I get beaten by a clever opponent. It makes you re-evaluate your play style and list for tweaks. You learn a lot more from your losses then wins.

Luckily for me my group has a forum where you schedule games so I was able to go through it and get all my games and not forget one. But if you don't have that and have played quite a few games maybe when trying to recollect honestly people forget the one forgettable loss but remember the easy win.

A lot of this is subjective too for competitive vs casual. The more competitive guys at my club may be the more casual at your club or vice versa. Plus people with large loss streaks may have just decided to shift to another army until the codex is released.

All told though that win% is rather high and I think shows that we can do well in a local setting.
All empires fall you just have to know where to push

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Yojimbob
Shas'Saal
Posts: 557

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#83 » Feb 07 2018 09:43

Outcome: W
Points/PL: 2000 pts
Opponent: Dark Angels
Competitive/Casual: Competitive
Tournament: N/A
Format: http://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/cfc7af_fb ... 4a793d.pdf
List Theme: Commanders, drones, Y'varha
Experience: Since Tau were born, lots of tournament play
Additional Info: Same list as viewtopic.php?f=43&t=27263&p=346430#p346430
Played against an extremely good DA player prepping for the GCGT. He loved his list and will likely play it at the tournament but my drones were on point with saves and he just couldn't remove enough stuff turn 1. Y'varha and Commanders totally dominate the game with all the extra drone wounds and I just pushed him back in his deploy with a concession at the top of turn 3 after he couldn't waste my y'varha without drone support. First game in a while that I took a Y'varha that didn't die top of turn 1! VICTORY!

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Jarhead
Shas
Posts: 10

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#84 » Feb 08 2018 01:53

These were both 500 point games played via roll20, to aid me in learning the game. These are my 2nd and 3rd games of 40k ever, and my 1st and 2nd in 8th, respectively.
Due to not being played on an actual table, and with the low points values, I think that these may be too far outside the norm to count for all that much. However all data can be useful depending on what you want to do with it.

Outcome: W
Points/PL: 500
Opponent: Sisters of Battle
Competitive/Casual: Casual
Tournament: N/A
Format: I am not sure what the mission was. We had points for first blood, slay the warlord, linebreaker, and 2 capture points worth 3 points each.
List Theme: Start Collecting box with a Cadre Fireblade
Experience: First game of 8th, 2nd ever game
Additional Info: Flamer XV8's are amazing on overwatch, the flamers, gun drones and fusion blasters killed Celestine on overwatch. Not knowing that Sisters of Battle can basically get two move phases left me vulnerable to a turn 1 charge that killed my entire firebase bar my Cadre Fireblade.

Outcome: L
Points/PL: 500
Opponent: Necron
Competitive/Casual: Casual
Tournament: N/A
Format: The first eternal war mission
List Theme: Start Collecting box with a Cadre Fireblade
Experience: Second game of 8th and 3rd ever.
Additional Info: Necrons are annoying beyond belief at 500 points. I simply did not have enough fire power to eliminate units. I also fired the wrong units at the wrong targets. Reanimation protocalls and the ability to ignore damage on vehicles by rolling under hurt me a lot.
Fish are friends, not food

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Studioworks
Shas'Saal
Posts: 162

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#85 » Feb 09 2018 05:07

Outcome: L
Points: 2000 Points
Opponent: Imperial Fists
Competitive/Casual: Casual
Tournament: N/A
Format: Matched play - Maelstorm of War, mission Contct lost
List Theme: Battlesuits and Pathfinders
Experience: 1 year
Additional Info: My opponent almost tabled me, but he got lucky to roll good advance and catch a Defend objective. Without it it would be a draw. Pretty happy because I was playing against a National team member from my Country (he didn't have a competitive list).

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JancoBCN
Shas'Saal
Posts: 100

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#86 » Feb 12 2018 07:54

Update!

Outcome: L
Points/PL: 2000 Points
Opponent: Imperial soup (Astra Militarum, Grey Knights, Celestine, Greyfax)
Competitive/Casual: Competitive
Tournament: N/a
Format: ITC Champion Missions
List Theme: 3xY'vahra experiment:
3xY'vahra, 4x9drones (3gun-6shield), 3CIB+ATS Commander, Coldstar, 3x5Strike team w/ markerlight, Ethereal
Experience: Since March 2017, but over 45 games in competitive 8th.
Additional Info:
His list was basically A LOT of guard sqads with Mortar and sniper, 2 Leman Russ, 5xGK Paladines, Celestine, Draigo and Greyfax. Also 3 Ellysian sqads with 3 plasmas each from deepstrike.
The quick batrep:

    T1: I got first turn, advanced with everything, just could kill 20 Guardsman.
    He deepstrike'd everything (but plasmas), and killed 15+ drones, and took 13 wounds of one Y'vahra. (too many mortal wounds..)
    T2: I moved forward with one Yvahra to kill both his Leman Russ. With the crippled one and the 3rd tried to kill Draigo and his paladins, but only killed 2 and did nothing to Draigo.
    He then killed my unprotected Y'vahra with 6 plasma guns (12 shots) at 4+ no problem, and then killed some drones thanks to saviour protocols. He killed me my Coldstar with 3 plasma guns at 4+ also no problem.
    T3: I tried to kill draigo again but failed with one avercharged Plasma Flamer and 3 CIB+ATS from my commander.
    I only killed two Celestines "drones" with the overcharged Ionic Discharge Cannon, so I call it then.

I just could not deal with those many threats in time (Celestine is just stupidly good and resilient, Draigo can put himself to a 2++ with an stratgem, and Tank Commander Pask is just nasty). I thought the more Y'vahras the better, but there may be some diminishing returns here that I did not expect.

EXPERIMENT FAILED


Outcome: W
Points/PL: 2000 Points
Opponent: Astra Militarum
Competitive/Casual: Competitive
Tournament: N/a
Format: ITC Champion Missions
List Theme: Stealth Heavy list:
2x4Stealth suits team (With FB and Homing Beacon), Shadowsun (I know, I just wanted a fluff list), 2xGhostkeels (2xFlamer+CIR+ATS+Stim), 3 Crisis (6xFlamers, 3xFB, 6 Shield drones), 2xQFC, 2xHazard Team (full drones), 1xColdstar
Experience: Since March 2017, but over 45 games in competitive 8th.
Additional Info:
His list was basically 4 Leman Russ, 3 valkiries (full plasma inside) and 3 Hellhounds (yes, hellhounds to automatically hit my poor and overpriced stealth dudes :::( .

The quick batrep:

    T1: He got 1st turn, he killed me (as expected) 7 out of 8 Stealth suits, 1 Ghostkeel and 8 drones.
    I advanced with my lonely Stealth Suit with my last Homing beacon and deepstrike'd everything. I poped one Hellhound, and tied up the other two in combat. I let 2 of his Leman Russ with 3 wounds remaining. Also, I killed 4 plasma squads with Hazards/FlamerSuits/Ghostkeel remaining
    T2: He then anihilated my Crisis team with Leman Russ fire, and some drones.
    I then killed 2 Leman Russ and some guardsmen.
    We could table each other from this point, so was pretty intense (I did not need to kill those Valkiries, thanks to the "Boots on the Ground" CA rule)
    On my T5 I had 3 commanders left with 2 wounds each (Coldstar, a QFC and Shadowsun) and my Ghostkeel with 8 wounds remaining still. I had to kill his 8 wounds Hellhound and his unhurt one, his last infantry squad and one lonely sargent who was running away:
    - I grilled the squad with my flamerkeel, and overcharged my CIR to do 2 damage to the wounded hellhound.
    - I flew through the battleflield with my Coldstar to hunt the lonely sargent, murdered him and put 2 more wounds to that same hellhound with his missile pod.
    [[2 Hellhounds (4 and 11 wounds) and only 2 commanders left to shoot...]]
    - Shot my QFC to the 11 wounds one, and YAY! 12 total roll for damage! One left!
    - Shot the other one with both Shadowsun's Fusion Blasters... to only hit one (OMG!) and wound it for....BEAM! a 2 and a 5 in the melta damage!

I tabled him, but the game was reeeally intense and tight.

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Jarhead
Shas
Posts: 10

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#87 » Feb 12 2018 09:01

Outcome: W
Points/PL: 500
Opponent: Imperial
Competitive/Casual: Casual
Tournament: N/A
Format: First eternal war mission out of the core rulebook.
List Theme: QFC with 2 shield drones, Stealth Team with two shield drones, Ghostkeel with flamers and Fusion.
Experience: Fourth game of 8th, 5th ever game
Additional Info: Game was played via Roll20. Was my opponents first game of 8th, he used to play years ago.
I firmly believe that the only reason I won this was that I could concentrate my small number of models onto one side of the field, and deny shooting to about half of my opponents army thanks to some large LoS blocking terrain.

Opponent fielded 3 squads of guardsmen with mortar heavy weapon teams, 1 squad of conscripts, 2 armored sentinels, 2 company commanders, 1 lord commissar.
Only squad left at end of game was 1 unit of guardsmen. I had only lost 5 drones.
I got first blood, line breaker, slay the warlord, and held 5 points of objectives. Total 8 points.
IG held the major objective for 4 points.

Tau won 8-4
Fish are friends, not food

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Yojimbob
Shas'Saal
Posts: 557

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#88 » Feb 12 2018 09:41

Outcome: W
Points/PL: 2000 pts
Opponent: Dark Angels
Competitive/Casual: Competitive
Tournament: N/A
Format: http://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/cfc7af_fb ... 4a793d.pdf
List Theme: 10 Commanders, 50 drones, 15 firewarriors, 4 kroot hounds
Experience: Since Tau were born, lots of tournament play
Additional Info: Played against an extremely good DA player prepping for the GCGT. He had a Command squad, Azrial, Librarian, Lieutenant, Champion, Nephalim jet fighter, 3 vindis, several 5 man tac squads with plasma, bikes, scout squads denying DS. He had a great deploy an dit was night fight. I went first dropping fusions down and removing the flyer and half a vindi. He did some mortal wounds with linebreaker bombardment. It got very very bloody and I actually lost several commanders this time. Got to turn 4 and he conceded once all his big characters were down as well as the command squad and his tac squads. Removed 1.5 vindis but they weren't that scary but they were next on the list. Solid victory.

Outcome: W
Points/PL: 2000 pts
Opponent: Orks
Competitive/Casual: Competitive
Tournament: N/A
Format: http://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/cfc7af_fb ... 4a793d.pdf
List Theme: 10 Commanders, 50 drones, 15 firewarriors, 4 kroot hounds
Experience: Since Tau were born, lots of tournament play
Additional Info: Lots and lots of boyz with a not so scary warboss on a bike, some tank bustas trying to kill stuff on the outskirts, boyz being jumped around the table, battlewagon with more boyz, and lootas. I let my drones take the first wave of attacks which surprisingly didn't do much. I shot up some more boyz and jumped over them into the meat of the table and basically began ignoring him while grabbing objectives. Conceded after his useless t2. Orks need some love with their codex. They just aren't scary in melee without doing some sort of armor reduction. Also, suits being t5 are huge in shrugging off lots of S4 attacks. Victory.

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CDR_Farsight
Shas'Saal
Posts: 260

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#89 » Feb 12 2018 12:56

Arka0415 wrote:
MNGamer wrote:“ATT users using some of the better units and and lists that choose which of their battles they report have a strong winrate in non-tournament games”. Remember that people are less likely to report losses than wins, even though no one is judging them. It’s just how people instinctively represent themselves in a social setting, I’d wager there are more losses than there are posted.

You might be right, but I really hope that isn't the cse. No one should feel judged on this forum, and frankly, reports of losses are much more valuable when it comes to discussing how we can all improve our gameplay. You make a good point though, and you're probably right.


From a tactics and learning point of view (completely independent from the goals of this assessment), maybe we should have a thread specifically for posting losses and lessons learned.
To secure victory, the wise must adapt ~ Puretide

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CDR_Farsight
Shas'Saal
Posts: 260

Re: Tau Win Percentage Log

Post#90 » Feb 12 2018 12:59

MNGamer wrote:Outcome: W
Points/PL: 2000
Opponent: Dark Eldar
Competitive/Casual: Casual
Tournament: N/A
Format: Open War Deck
List Theme: Lots of fire warriors supported by deepstriking crisis, fusion commander, and coldstar.
Experience: Two Years
Additional Info: Opponent was basically tabled by turn 4, Dark Eldar vehicles are very squishy.

Outcome: L
Points/PL: 2000
Opponent: Custodes
Competitive/Casual: Grudge Match
Tournament: N/A
Format: Open War
List Theme: Lots of fire warriors supported by deepstriking crisis, fusion commander, and coldstar.
Experience: Two Years
Additional Info: The 1cp stratagem that lets a Custodes unit shoot concussive grenades that prevent overwatch is brutal. Custodes are extremely hard to put down, i only killed 8 out of 25-ish. I believe that Custodes will be major players in the future.

Outcome: L
Points/PL: 50pl
Opponent: Necrons
Competitive/Casual: Casual
Tournament: N/A
Format: Open War
List Theme: Suit Heavy.
Additional Info: I lost by points, i had killed about 75% of his units vs 25% of mine.

Arka0415 wrote:
MNGamer wrote:“ATT users using some of the better units and and lists that choose which of their battles they report have a strong winrate in non-tournament games”. Remember that people are less likely to report losses than wins, even though no one is judging them. It’s just how people instinctively represent themselves in a social setting, I’d wager there are more losses than there are posted.

You might be right, but I really hope that isn't the cse. No one should feel judged on this forum, and frankly, reports of losses are much more valuable when it comes to discussing how we can all improve our gameplay. You make a good point though, and you're probably right.

Thats the main issue with self reporting for anything. I would also like to add that if anyone feels self conscience about posting a game for any reason , just PM the details to me and ill post it myself.


I agree with the points you are trying to make and the limitations to this method of compiling data. The question then becomes, "Is something better than nothing?" If yes, then I will continue...if no...then I'll simply let this thread die. Seems like some people are getting benefits from the Additional Info sections at least, even if the stats are intrinsically bloated.
To secure victory, the wise must adapt ~ Puretide

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