New 7th ed Psychic Probabilities

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Hodgeypodge
Shas
Posts: 30

New 7th ed Psychic Probabilities

Post#1 » Jul 26 2014 04:10

The earth caste have just finished reconstructing and assimilating the statistical data provided by the - ISCABIA - Program on "paranormal happenings" after a significant change was noticed from the 24/5/2014 onwards by the 'Protecting rationality for the greater good' AI. (Intra-Synchronous-Computation-of-Antecedent-Battle-Imaging-Analysis)

The results are displayed below.

Likelihood of something enigmatic happening in minor favour of the enemy:
Probability of casting a warp charge 1 psychic power successfully

1d6: 50%
2d6: 75%
3d6: 87.5%
4d6: 93.75%
5d6: 96.88%
6d6: 98.44%
7d6: 99.22%
8d6: 99.61%
9d6: 99.80%
10d6: 99.90%


Likelihood of something enigmatic happening in Notable favour of the enemy:
Probability of casting a warp charge 2 psychic power successfully

1d6: 0%
2d6: 25%
3d6: 50%
4d6: 68.75%
5d6: 81.25%
6d6: 89.06%
7d6: 93.75%
8d6: 96.48%
9d6: 98.05%
10d6: 98.93%

Likelihood of something enigmatic happening in Significant favour of the enemy:
Probability of casting a warp charge 3 psychic power successfully

1d6: 0%
2d6: 0%
3d6: 12.50%
4d6: 31.25%
5d6: 50.00%
6d6: 65.63%
7d6: 77.34%
8d6: 85.55%
9d6: 91.02%
10d6: 94.53%

Likelihood of something enigmatic happening in favour of the Greater Good simultaneous to the enigmatic happening in favour of the enemy:
Chance of Perils

[*]1d6: 0%
2d6: 2.78%
3d6: 7.41%
4d6: 13.19%
5d6: 19.62%
6d6: 26.32%
7d6: 33.02%
8d6: 39.53%
9d6: 45.73%
10d6: 51.55%

Data from pre [24/5]:
Success Rate in 6th edition

Ld 7 : 58.33%

Ld 8 : 72.22%

Ld 9 : 83.33%

Ld 10 : 91.67

Likelihood of something enigmatic happening in favour of the Greater Good : 5.5%

-

Comparing the data, the Earth Caste have come to the conclusion that this change is of 'Great Benefit' to The Greater Good -

...although ...

images of Class D size Monstrous Creatures with aviation capabilities bearing large handheld weaponry Apparating! out of nowhere has put certain members of the Earth Caste into searching for an error in the calculation process.

If some members of the Earth Caste from your division spot any errors, please inform the ISCABIA Crew with amendments with as little delay as possible in order for the spreading of misinformation to be minimised.

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REDACTED
Kor
Posts: 11

Re: New 7th ed Psychic Probabilities

Post#2 » Jul 26 2014 06:45

+++ UPLINK ESTABLISHED
+++ UNAUTHORIZED ACTIVITY DETECTED
+++ ATTEMPTING TO END UPLINK: FAILED
+++ ATTEMPTING TO END UPLINK: FAILED
+++ backdoor.sub.23X4//ISCABIA
+++ INPUT?
+++ sec.sub.9Y77
+++ COMMAND OVERRIDE: ACCEPTED
+++ UPLINK AUTHORIZED
+++ WELCOME, COMMANDER SHASERRA
+++ download contents//ISCABIA.PRGGAI.240514
+++ PROCESSING... 04%
+++ PROCESSING... 46%
+++ PROCESSING... 93%
+++ DOWNLOAD COMPLETE

// The Enclaves thank you for your diligent analysis.

+++ UPLINK CLOSED

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Kael'yn
Fio'Ui
Fio'Ui
Posts: 1097

Re: New 7th ed Psychic Probabilities

Post#3 » Jul 26 2014 07:50

Nice.

But I hope you don't mind this little formatting:

Code: Select all

Chances for psychic rolls
   | Warp Charges        | Perils
D6 | WC1   | WC2  | WC3  | of Warp
---------------------------------
 1  |  50%  |  0%  |  0%  |  0%
 2  |  75%  | 25%  |  0%  |  3%
 3  |  88%  | 50%  | 13%  |  7%
 4  |  94%  | 69%  | 31%  | 13%
 5  |  97%  | 81%  | 50%  | 20%
 6  |  98%  | 89%  | 66%  | 26%
 7  |  99%  | 94%  | 77%  | 33%
 8  | 100%  | 96%  | 86%  | 40%
 9  | 100%  | 98%  | 91%  | 46%
10 | 100%  | 99%  | 95%  | 52%


EDIT: Just upsized the small code font and added a title
Last edited by Kael'yn on Jul 27 2014 11:31, edited 1 time in total.

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Hodgeypodge
Shas
Posts: 30

Re: New 7th ed Psychic Probabilities

Post#4 » Jul 27 2014 04:21

Kael'yn wrote:I hope you don't mind this little formatting:


Oh Yeah! A much nicer format! Do you think I should replace the main body of first post with it or do you think people can scroll down to your post? I'm just a little protective of my tau analysis of warpcharge and sort! No! I'll replace it. I'll stop being silly!

Also do you know if there is a place we can maybe put the psychic probabilities in your formatting somewhere more easily accessible to people later on? This post will very quickly leave the 'recent updates' panel on the front page and IMHO, the search engine really isn't very efficient! What do you think?

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Kael'yn
Fio'Ui
Fio'Ui
Posts: 1097

Re: New 7th ed Psychic Probabilities

Post#5 » Jul 27 2014 05:25

Do what you want with what I've done... My task was just build the tables in a spreadsheet, copy-paste it in Notepad++, replace tabs with space and put in there (with some lines added) as "code" (monospaced text).


About pinning the topic, it's to the admins to decide if it's worth being pinned.
If you want to expand a little more the psychic tables (Deny The witch rolls, ...) to put all the infos you may want on psychic table, maybe it will worth the pinning.

Search engine parse title and messages by default. By giving a detailed title (or maybe first topic) with the keywords the most used (psychic, table, rolls, probabilities, chance, ...), it may be in the first results (specially in searching "topic titles")

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Jefffar
Shas'Vre
Shas'Vre
Posts: 1019

Re: New 7th ed Psychic Probabilities

Post#6 » Jul 27 2014 07:53

Great analysis.

For those of us allied with enigmatic beings it seems like Warp Charge x3 is the number of dice that should be rolled to get a high likelihood of success. Of course, it also radically increases the odds of something disastrous occurring.

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Hodgeypodge
Shas
Posts: 30

Re: New 7th ed Psychic Probabilities

Post#7 » Jul 27 2014 09:44

Jefffar wrote:Great analysis.


Would you think it would be worth adding the Deny the Witch probabilities and also casting Daemonic powers?

I have a feeling that it might just get lost in the graveyard of past threads and not be very useful unless it's more accessible to the ATT community than the search engine.

I don't quite know how to avoid this... Kael'yn said something along the lines of 'pinned' but I don't quite know what that means. It definitely won't have a place amongst the vastly extensive academy articles but I don't know where otherwise?

What does the community think?

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Jefffar
Shas'Vre
Shas'Vre
Posts: 1019

Re: New 7th ed Psychic Probabilities

Post#8 » Jul 27 2014 02:22

I think we are part of the way towards something worthy of being made a permanent featured part of the forums. I think you should look for ways to use this as a part of an article regarding the psychic threat and how to best combat it.

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Hodgeypodge
Shas
Posts: 30

Re: New 7th ed Psychic Probabilities

Post#9 » Jul 27 2014 02:57

Jefffar wrote:I think we are part of the way towards something worthy of being made a permanent featured part of the forums. I think you should look for ways to use this as a part of an article regarding the psychic threat and how to best combat it.


Sounds like a plan!

Jakobokaj
Shas
Posts: 41

Re: New 7th ed Psychic Probabilities

Post#10 » Jul 27 2014 03:14

Jefffar wrote:Great analysis.

For those of us allied with enigmatic beings it seems like Warp Charge x3 is the number of dice that should be rolled to get a high likelihood of success. Of course, it also radically increases the odds of something disastrous occurring.

This isn't quite true, assuming your limiter is warp charges and not powers and you are going for efficiency (rather than needing an ensured cast for a specific power) you should be using 1 charge for WC 1 powers 4 for WC2 powers and 7 for warp charge three. This gives an average of 2 dice needed per successful WC1 cast and ~5.8 for each successful WC2 power and 9 for each WC3 power, this is why I don't understand the huge fear of daemon spam lists. Needing an average of 9 dice for each summon is a big deal. Now this is only useful when the limiter is warp charges and not number of casters or needing to get a specific power off.

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parigi41
Shas
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Re: New 7th ed Psychic Probabilities

Post#11 » Nov 24 2014 03:56

In my club Daemon's players tend to stay on the 50% success probabilities for every WC.
Peril probabilites are pretty lower at that level than launching 9 dice for WC3 and so on.
They evocate and summon cursed earth every time without great risks.
Still havo to learn how to kill their Daemon Princes and Aralds.

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